April 19th, 2012
It is certainly less than the proportion of people sometimes reported to fear it. So as bad as job loss can be, are our fears of its likelihood exaggerated? Read on.
It's known as the hazard of unemployment. It's not routinely published but here's the data, unearthed for us by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is in part because of a growing working-age population. Normally, extra people in the workforce are soaked up by a rising number of jobs. Not at the moment.
And here's the answer - about 1.5 in 100, on average.
That's because there are also about four million who flowed back into work. Not enough to soak up the extra workers from a rising population, but still a huge number of people finding jobs.
Just imagine 100 unemployed people lined up. About 20 to 25 of them, on average, will be in work in three months. Now think of a hundred employed people lined up. One or two will be unemployed next quarter. That's probably the best way to think of the average risk if you're wondering, "will it happen to me?" Of course, circumstances in different jobs will vary. I've also tried to simplify things by not going into detail about the flows around inactivity, which I don't think affect the main point of the analysis.
Bear in mind that about another 1.5% to 2% leave the workforce to become inactive, as it's called, every three months. This hasn't changed much either, it might even have gone down a smidgen.
The good news is that the chance looks as if it picks up towards the end of the year. The bad news is that it looks as if it falls again soon after.
The hazard of unemployment is not an official statistic but it is calculated using the Labour Force Survey, which is where much of our official data on unemployment comes from. And there is a new series of experimental statistics that aims to capture labour market flows. You can read about them here, though hazard rates are not included and not routinely published.
And that's mostly why things are tougher. It's only partly the small rise in the chance of losing a job - it's more to do with the increased difficulty of finding one.
About 2.62 million people are unemployed. What's the chance of you becoming one of them? For his regular column, Michael Blastland finds out.
Even so, the change in the chance of finding a job adds up to far more people than the change in the chance of losing one - which is mainly why unemployment is going up. The percentages seem to me fine to compare on the same scale if we think of them simply as meaning the chance that it will happen to any individual on average.
Because all this is no comfort if you're one of those who can't find a job or get back into one. And let's remember that these figures are averages. Some people are more likely to lose work than others - those with low educational qualifications for example. And some are less likely to find it than average.
The chance of getting back into work is the problem
*Obscure techie note: The hazard ratios in each direction are proportions of different numbers. That is, if 1% of employed people lose their job, it's 1% of about 29 million. But if 1% of unemployed go into work, that's 1% of about 2.6 million. So the two lines on one chart are not a good way of comparing the total numbers affected, just the chances for one person.
Unemployment is rising. People fear for their jobs. But what is the chance of becoming unemployed? Go Figure doesn't do crystal balls, but we can look at the most recent odds.
That is, the flow out of work is far bigger than the extra 175,000 who got stuck in unemployment over the past 12 months.
That is, about 1.5% of people in work become unemployed every three months - for example, sacked, redundant, contract ended. This reached about 2% at the peak of the recession.
That's the increased chance of going from work to unemployment and it's equal to about one extra person in every 500 losing their job.
One other little insight from those hazard calculations. The chance of getting into work if you are unemployed goes up and down during the year. There's seasonal fluctuation.
So if the news says "200 jobs lost at Bloggs Bros and that's recession for you", actually it's not so very different from normal. What's changed is the chance of getting into work again.
The chart shows how much it has changed, and it looks as if the line really leaps around. And it did spike during the recession. But now look at the scale. The difference between now and before the recession is about 0.2 percentage points or so.
So why is unemployment rising? Because here's the other side of the story - the chance of getting into work in the next three months if you are unemployed.
The blue line is the first chart rescaled. Together they compare the chance for any individual on average of either getting (orange) or losing (blue) a job.
The orange line shows that the chance of finding work in the next three months if you are unemployed is about 20-25%, down from about 25-30%.
Not enough new jobs are available
Is that a lot?
But see the techie note below*. Note too the seasonal variation.
For some, this immense turnover and flow in both directions might offer hope that unemployment is not necessarily a graveyard. It's experienced by millions every year, in recession or out. For the majority, unemployment is not a destination. This might be another reason to be more concerned about the exceptions.
Turn all these percentages into real people and you get another surprise. Because even though the chance of losing a job hasn't changed much, the total number who do leave work for unemployment or inactivity always was huge. It adds up to about four million people coming out of the workforce over the past year.
April 16th, 2012
I love this eternity scarf as a new twist on a classic look. Stars like Kourtney Kardashian, her sister Kim and Hilary Duff are all wrapped up in this Paula Bianco style at singer22.com.
By Sasha Charnin Morrison for UsMagazine.com. To read more of the Recessionista blog, click here.
Made of acrylic and nylon, the scarf comes in black, charcoal, olive, taupe, eggplant, wine and light grey. But for $83, it’s a lot of money.
As the temperatures begin behaving like a rollercoaster (humid, hot, cool, windy, balmy — oy!), what are you supposed to wear?
This is what I love about accessories — you can do many things and change your outfit constantly. And also not have to fret about what to wear and not wear.
You can wear this type of scarf more ways than one. Try around the neck or across the shoulders like a shrug.
I have found that a scarf is not only a neccessity but a celebrity favorite. In fact, scarves may be the MVP of every wardrobe. You can drape, wrap, add pins or even cover yourself, sari style.
On a hunt, I found something that I bought from Urban Outfitters, a store that I think has such a handle on knits, for $34. The Deena & Ozzy Ribbed Eternity Scarf is big and comfy and almost like wearing a sweater in itself. The acrylic scarf measures 80 inches in length and 20 inches in width. It comes in grey, lavender and rose.
April 15th, 2012
Roberts is also wearing those limited edition open-toed Pierre Hardy for Gap booties ($195, gap.com). A few sizes are still available online so order while you can!
This trend is just cool. It makes you feel naughty without really having to do anything!
Feeling a bit edgy? Then rock a studded vest with any outfit.
I love this Rocker Asymmetrical Vest from Forever21.com. It’s perfectly priced (just $30!) and looks identical to the one that Emma Roberts is wearing. It makes me want to buy it and add some more studs.
By Sasha Charnin Morrison for UsMagazine.com. To read more of the Recessionista blog, click here.
The vest is knit, so it gives a lot more than pleather or PVC. While you may want to pair black eyeliner and black tights with this look, you can also layer it with something feminine for balance.
April 13th, 2012
The singer’s claims of being gluten and lactose intolerant is raising questions about her new diet. 10:38 AM PDT 4/10/2012 by Elizabeth Snead
April 12th, 2012
Photo: Kacper Kasprzyk
It’s a Versace moment. Donatella’s new collection for H&M, set to hit stores November 19, has sent the blogosphere into a near-unprecedented tizzy, and her Spring ‘12 collections (for women and men) were standouts of the season. In the first issue of Style.com/Print, Tim Blanks sits down with the designer to find out what’s behind the dramatic resurgence of the label and how she’s harnessed the Versace history for a new age. Spoiler alert: A new crew of young British collaborators (including Christopher Kane) and fans (like Lady Gaga) who revere the Versace classics of the eighties and nineties both play parts. With her fast-fashion collection, Donatella set out to revive those classics. “All these people reacting to what was in the archives—Gaga, the people in London, the young kids in the office—they’re 25 years old, they’re obsessed,” Versace told Blanks. “They don’t know. So we did a best of Versace for H&M, a greatest hits, from the beginning until now.”
CLICK FOR A SLIDESHOW of a few key looks from the Versace for H&M collection, with commentary from Donatella herself. Click below for an exclusive behind-the-scenes video from Versace’s Style.com/Print shoot. And to read Tim Blanks’ profile of Donatella Versace, order Issue 01 of Style.com/Print here.
—Matthew Schneier
April 10th, 2012
Photo: Courtesy of Sergio Rossi
Rather than its usual day-long open house, this season, Sergio Rossi and creative director Francesco Russo elected to host a more intimate cocktail party to debut their new Fall collection in Milan. And intimate fits the entertainment as well as the event. For the occasion, Russo and director Luca Guadagnino created a three-minute short film starring model Diana Dondoe, whose shod (but largely unclad) form is placed front and center in the erotic piece.
Eroticism is nothing new to Guadagnino, who hit big with his film I Am Love, starring Tilda Swinton as a Milanese matriarch who embarks on a passionate affair with a young chef. (Russo cited a scene in which Swinton’s character and the chef first make love as a favorite.) “I’ve known Luca for 15 years, and for me it’s very important to work with people I feel close and comfortable with,” he explained to Style.com. “It all came together quite naturally, really.”
If the sensual is nothing new to Guadagnino, it’s familiar ground for Russo, too. Sex appeal has been one of his trademarks during his time at Rossi. “For me, the shoe is not just an object for its own sake, but something that can change the state of mind of the person wearing or observing it,” he says. “I’m moving forward towards accessories addressing the entire woman’s body. I refer to this project as ‘Skin to Skin,’ because the body pieces become a sort of a second skin playing with female transformation caused by wearing wonderful shoes.”
And those shoes? “Most are made of different types of leather and exotic skins like python, ostrich foot, lizard, crocodile, and kid suede, mostly in monochromatic colors to underline the different textures,” Russo says of the new collection. “They’re like objects in a constant mutation.” The film screens at the presentation, which begins now in Milan, and debuts here on Style.com.
—Matthew Schneier
April 9th, 2012
In September, Roberto Cavalli’s Spring collection of floral pleated skirts and gold-sequined numbers had editors’ jaws on the floor by the end of the show. Here, in this behind-the-scenes video taken at the Spring ‘12 ad campaign shoot at New York’s Pier 59, we get a closer look at those embossed python jackets and silk printed dresses that impressed us in Milan. The Steven Meisel-lensed campaign, with makeup by Pat McGrath and hair by Guido Palau, features Cavalli’s muses-of-the-moment: Naomi Campbell, Karen Elson, Kristen McMenamy, and Daphne Groeneveld—women he chose because they “embody the standards of a modern appeal.” They are looking like Cavalli goddesses to us. The collection hits stores next month.
—Kristin Studeman
Photo: Steven Meisel
April 9th, 2012
Milan Vukmirovic is no longer with Trussardi, but that doesn’t mean the fashion multi-hyphenate has slowed down. The launch issue of his new magazine, Fashion for Men, which is over 600 pages strong, hits newsstands at the end of the month, and Pitti announced last week that his capsule collection for Chevignon Heritage (four pieces for men, four for women) will make its debut at the Florence trade fair in January. Today, Style.com learned that Vukmirovic has been named the creative director for Boon the Shop, Korea’s pioneering multibrand retailer. For those unfamiliar with the store, a press release describes it as “a gateway to Seoul for brands like Marni, Yohji Yamamoto, Ann Demeulemeester, Comme des Garçons, Maison Martin Margiela,” and more. Vukmirovic himself calls it as a cross between Barneys and Colette, the latter of which he helped establish in 1997. In his new role, he’ll be responsible for two high-end retail concepts that are scheduled to launch in late 2012/early 2013. “I didn’t know Korea at all,” Vukmirovic said. “I was shocked by the modernity, the architecture, and the energy. It reminds me of Tokyo 15 years ago. I’m in love with it.”
—Nicole Phelps
Photo: Tommy Ton
April 9th, 2012
To celebrate her new denim collection, Tory Burch turned to the pros—a handful of online fashion editors and bloggers, that is, who descended on her Meatpacking District store on Tuesday to check out the new goods. Each one styled an outfit on a model, and in a bout of friendly competition, Tory’s put the results on her Facebook page and is encouraging readers to vote for the ensemble they like best. Call us partial, but we like the look our senior market editor, Marina Larroude, put together. She’s paired a plaid ruffled blouse with a cropped-sleeve black leather jacket, overdyed skinny jeans, and embellished boots. The cuff, Larroude says, is from Burch’s first collaboration with her longtime friend, jeweler Kara Ross, and the blouse is said to be Tory’s own favorite top. Click here to go to the Tory Burch Facebook page to vote—the winner will be announced on Monday (and, in full disclosure, will get their entire outfit).
Photo: Courtesy of Tory Burch
April 8th, 2012
The actor and activist is opening a chain of quality food stores in his native New Orleans, where fresh products remain in short supply even six years after Hurricane Katrina hit.
our editor recommends
Treme star Wendell Pierce is an in-demand actor (he plays trombone man Antoine Baptiste on the HBO show), a man of the stage (currently he’s producing the Broadway run of last year’s Pulitzer Prize-winning Clybourne Park), an activist and now a grocer.